How are UK former prime ministers influencing politics?
Ellis Wiggins
When we talk about the political impact of prime ministers, we tend to focus exclusively on the issues that they faced in office, their stewardship of the machinery of government or their relationships with their colleagues on both sides of the partisan divide. We give little attention to their lives after Number 10 – very few have written about the causes they champion, the new roles they take on, or the ways they continue to exercise influence over policy and politics.
Yet what former PMs do and how they continue to shape political debate and the direction of policy is a key piece of the UK political system. Just recently, Sir John Major and Gordon Brown have been leading voices in setting up an international tribunal to investigate Vladimir Putin for war crimes over the invasion of Ukraine. In 2021, Theresa May led a Conservative rebellion on cuts to overseas aid, Sir Tony Blair intervened on the West’s withdrawal from Afghanistan – and infamously, David Cameron made the news for his lobbying on behalf of Greensill Capital.
But with little scrutiny and accountability of their activities, we should ask: how are former PMs continuing to have an influence out of office? If we take a look at the five living former PMs –Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron and May – we can identify three key types of methods that they use.
The first of these types of methods is using the offices and machinery of the UK political system, something we could call being a ‘Political Insider’. Of the five, May has been the closest to an insider, staying in the House of Commons and using it as platform to speak out (and challenge her successor) on issues from Brexit to domestic abuse. Major and Brown both served a single term as MPs after losing a General Election, but used Commons debates to raise matters affecting the wider world and their constituencies – indeed, Brown was a regular user of Adjournment Debates to highlight local concerns. Blair and Cameron, on the other hand, left Parliament either immediately or in the space of months.
Examples of political issues pursued or raised by the five living former PMsMajorIdeological direction of the Conservative PartyBrexitBlairMiddle East peaceCOVID-19 pandemic responseBrownGlobal educationScottish devolution/independenceCameronState fragilityDevelopment and foreign aidMayDomestic abuseUK Internal Market Bill
When compared to their 20th century predecessors, though, the five represent a real decline in former PMs continuing a political career in Parliament, and notably, none of them have taken up seats in the House of Lords. The unelected Lords has become unfashionable – with Blair declining a seat because “it is not my scene” – and it is debatable whether it provides a more high-profile platform for former PMs in an age of easily-accessible mass media and social media. Nor we do we now see former PMs serving in successors’ Cabinets or carrying on as Leader of the Opposition after losing a General Election. Arguably, as the office of prime minister has become more ‘presidential’, it has become harder for a former PM to serve in a subordinate role – especially if their political legacy is considered ‘toxic’.
The second type of method we find among the living former PMs is working through one or more organisations – holding an office or role outside the UK political system, or creating an office to support their activities. On leaving Number 10, Blair was appointed as the Special Envoy of the Quartet (known more widely as the ‘Middle East Peace Envoy’). His controversial tenure saw him continue a policy agenda in the region that he began in office. Perhaps surprisingly given their turbulent relationship, Brown followed Blair’s example by accepting a role as UN Special Envoy for Global Education.
Examples of ‘political’ roles currently or previously held by the five living former PMsMajorMember of the International Advisory Board of the Peres Center for Peace in IsraelMember of the International Advisory Board of the InterAction Council (organisation of former political leaders)President of the Bow Group think tankBlairSpecial Envoy of the Quartet on the Middle EastBrownUN Special Envoy on Global EducationChair of the International Commission on Financing Global Education OpportunityCameronChairman of the Commission on State Fragility, Growth and DevelopmentCo-chair of the Council on State FragilityMayChair of Aldersgate Group (membership organisation of politicians, businesses and NGOs)
Blair also created a trend by setting up the Tony Blair Institute, an office support structure for his role as a former PM. His successors have echoed this with varying degrees of complexity and public profile. Indeed, the Office of Theresa May, unlike the others, does not produce policy documents or issue statements. Likewise, May’s lack of roles of a political nature outside Parliament, put her at odds with her fellow former PMs – though previous rumours of a Government-proposed candidacy for May to become Secretary-General of NATO might suggest this could change if an offer of a significant job came along.
Finally, the third type of method is the use of a public platform away from Parliament to shape political and policy discussion. Blair has been consistently visible since leaving office. From Brexit to the Middle East, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, he uses interviews, documentaries, speeches and press releases to provide his opinion on political topics and policy solutions. Likewise, Brown has had a high-profile on Scottish issues, and his intervention in the 2014 independence referendum has been seen as one of the key drivers of the vote to stay in the UK. Major has become a vocal critic of Boris Johnson and Brexit, in the process becoming a rallying point for Conservatives ill-at-ease with Johnson’s policies and behaviour. Interestingly, his use of a public profile was not always his style. Prior to the 2016 referendum, Major made few comments on his successors, particularly when the Conservatives returned to power in 2010 – perhaps remembering his own experience of ‘back-seat driving’ by Margaret Thatcher.
At the same time, it would be naïve to think that former PMs hold back from behind-the-scenes lobbying. The problem is that we only become more aware of this kind of activity the more time goes on. This can take the form of private advice to their successors as party leader – Major formed part of a ‘wiseman’ committee of former Conservative leaders advising Cameron in Opposition. Nevertheless, when private persuasion becomes public, it is often accompanied by scandal involving personal business interests. The lobbying of Government ministers by Cameron since he left office, while provoking outrage, notably involved advocating for companies he worked for, rather than a political cause.
Prime ministers are now leaving office at a relatively younger age than their predecessors, leaving them with multiple decades to fill in their post-premiership career. More scrutiny and transparency of what former PMs do to purse a policy agenda would avoid more scandals about their influence in the future. They may be in their political twilight years, but former PMs are undeniably still key political actors.
Ellis Wiggins was an MSc Student on Birkbeck Politics MSc in Government, Policy and Politics. you can read their full dissertation here